Brendan Caldwell, president, CEO and CIO, Caldwell Investment Management

FOCUS: North American large cap stocks   

MARKET OUTLOOK:

Investors have been adjusting their projections for the economy towards a soft landing scenario, away from a typical recession. GDP numbers have been holding, inflation has generally been coming down and the economy has managed to avoid a recession so far. However, there is potential for waning excess consumer savings and the lagged effects of higher rates to stunt economic growth going forward by making it difficult for companies to grow their earnings. Despite the fair odds of a soft landing scenario, it likely is still a late-cycle investing environment as the economy is currently making very efficient use of resources to produce goods and services with little room to achieve any greater growth rates without risking inflation. The labour market is a key variable that hinders any further increases in growth, as it remains quite tight. This prompts us to maintain our focus on identifying high-quality, well-managed companies with proven track records of navigating through tough environments. Hence, we believe that professional investment advice can be extremely valuable in times such as these.

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Ares Management (ARES NYSE)

Brown & Brown (BRO NYSE)

Jacobs Solutions (J NYSE)

PAST PICKS: November 7, 2022

MCKESSON (MCK NYSE)
• Then: US$394.72
• Now: US$435.40
• Return: 10 per cent
• Total Return: 11 per cent
TRACTOR SUPPLY (TSCO NASD)
• Then: US$223.14
• Now: US$202.38
• Return: -9 per cent
• Total Return: -8 per cent
CARLISLE COMPANIES (CSL NYSE)
• Then: US$239.41
• Now: US$258.98
• Return: 8 per cent
• Total Return: 10 per cent
Total Return Average: 4 per cent