As we look for patterns to explain our world, one clear correlation is that economic prosperity drives energy consumption. Over the past 30 years, the size of the world economy has more than doubled and natural gas consumption has almost doubled.

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Eric Miller: Why the world needs more Canadian natural gas Back to video

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With the challenge of climate change, the race is on to reduce the emissions intensity of the world’s energy systems. Over the past 20 years, North America’s electricity networks have become measurably cleaner. This is due substantially to a switch from coal to natural gas. Electricity generated from natural gas emits a fraction of the carbon generated by coal.

Nevertheless, world coal consumption reached record levels in 2022, surpassing eight billion tonnes for the first time.

The largest consumers — China, India, and Indonesia — continue to build and deploy coal-fired power plants at an aggressive pace. Why? Because coal is a cheap and easy source of energy China now produces more carbon emissions that the United States, Europe and Japan combined.

Coal consumption in Europe began surging even before the Ukraine war. It was up seven per cent in 2022, but 14 per cent in 2021.

The bottom line is when countries need energy, they will not tell their citizens to go without. Rather, they will turn to the sources available to them — and too often this means coal.

Canada has an abundance of energy resources, including being the fifth largest natural gas producer in the world. Of its top 10 peers, Norway is the only other country with an economy-wide price on carbon. This means Canadian natural gas is arguably ethically superior to that produced by its competitors.

If the world is to make real progress toward decarbonization, it needs to take big bites out of the emissions problem. IHS Markit estimates that if just 20 per cent of Asia’s coal-fired power plants were converted to natural gas, global emissions would be reduced by more than the entirety of Canada’s annual emissions.

In other words, converting a relatively small share of Asia’s power infrastructure would “save a Canada” in emissions. One could save “two Canadas” with a more aggressive approach.

So, how could such a strategy of this nature work?

Canada would arrange financing — some combination of public and private capital — to build or convert power plants to run on natural gas. A consortium of Canadian firms would build the facilities and supply the operating systems, all while ensuring that Canadian environmental standards are embedded throughout. These investments would be underwritten by long-term supply agreements for Canadian natural gas.

For this to work, Canada needs to be able to move its energy where it is needed. Since 2005, 18 liquified natural gas (LNG) export terminals have been proposed, but only LNG Canada in Kitimat, B.C. is close to completion.

In August, when Chancellor Olaf Scholtz came looking to buy Canadian natural gas, he got nothing because Canada lacked the infrastructure to supply Germany. In December, Germany signed a 15-year contract with Qatar, with first deliveries due in 2026.

Nevertheless, the $40-billion LNG Canada project, taken integrally with the Coastal Gaslink Pipeline and the Montney gas field, is an example of what is possible if Canada leans into being a major energy supplier.

The project will generate significant government revenue, promote trade diversification, and aid Canada’s foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific region.

Most importantly though are the economic opportunities for First Nations. A group of First Nations hold a 10 per cent equity stake in the Coastal Gaslink pipeline. Then there is Cedar LNG: the Haisla nation, on whose land the LNG Canada terminal sits, is developing a separate floating export terminal. Once completed, it will become the largest First Nations owned infrastructure project in Canada.

Resource projects done right can help First Nations build a prosperous future for themselves.

The world really does need more Canada. To address the challenge of climate change, we need to “think globally and act globally.”

If Canadian gas is “kept in the ground” and not sent to Asia or Europe, these regions will either burn coal or use gas that is produced under a less rigorous regulatory regime and no carbon price. Both scenarios leave the world worse off.

Eric Miller is president of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group. This article is adapted from his new paper Canada and global energy security: The role of natural gas in a lower carbon world, published by the Canadian Chamber’s Future of Business Centre.